Vice President Terry Branstad?

Apparently the Governor is open to the possibility.

When you look up the word “governor” in the dictionary, you will see a picture of Terry Branstad. This winter, Branstad will become the longest serving governor in the history of the country. The secret to Branstad’s longevity is that he understands the job. He governs the state instead of imposing his personal ideology on it.

Now when you look up “Vice President” in the dictionary, you will not see an image of Branstad associated with it. Let’s be honest. Can you see Branstad in a Vice Presidential debate? No. Can you see him giving a huge speech at the national convention? No. Heck, I don’t even know how he would hold up with all the strenuous schedule.

What I find interesting is not that Branstad is open to being the Vice President nominee, it’s that he would be open to leaving while in office. While I doubt he would be considered as VP, he could be a cabinet secretary or better yet a high profile ambassador. Branstad loves to travel, and he probably has the best ties to the Chinese government of anyone in the county. I could see him as the U.S. Ambassador to China. It’s a BIG job, but I can see him doing that before being I see him being Vice President.

Some have speculated that Branstad will not fulfill his entire term, which would make it possible for him to pass the baton to Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds, making her the first female governor of the state. These rumors of a future national role feed into that speculation.

 

Photo by Gage Skidmore

Winners and Losers from Gas Tax Increase

A ten-cent increase in the state’s gas tax sailed through the Republican controlled Iowa House of Representatives and the Democrat controlled Iowa Senate on Tuesday. The bill now goes to Governor Terry Branstad, who has indicated that he will sign it into law. Ironically, Branstad was also governor in 1989, the last time the gas tax was increased in the state.

While the legislature can now move past the gas tax debate, the political ramifications of the vote will remain through the 2016 election cycle and beyond. The following is a list of political winners and losers from the gas tax increase.

The Winners

Governor Terry Branstad

Since he mounted his political comeback in the fall of 2009, Terry Branstad has danced around the gas tax issue. In the 2010 Republican primary, he was repeatedly attacked for increasing the tax in 1989, and his Republican opponents told voters of his plans to increase it again. Republicans’ thirst to control the governor’s office once again caused voters to overlook the issue.

While the issue was debated in the legislature for the past few years, Branstad remained hands off. He wasn’t going to carry the political football. With token opposition in 2014, the gas tax increase wasn’t made an issue in his re-election campaign. Even when asked about it directly, Branstad was always careful to never take ownership of the issue.

With the likelihood that 2014 was his last campaign, Branstad will gladly sign into law what will be more than a one billion dollar tax increase over the next five years. While many in his party will be upset with him and the other Republican lawmakers who helped push the tax increase through, Branstad will continue to be viewed as a leader who is willing to tackle the difficult problems that face the state.

Senator Mike Gronstal 

Gronstal has frustrated Iowa Republicans for years with his ability to remain in control of the Iowa Senate. Some Republicans believe that Gronstal is some political mastermind. He’s not. He just a good politician. It is votes like the gas tax increase that keep Gronstal and the Democrats in the majority.

Part of the reason why it’s been so difficult for Republicans to win control of the Iowa Senate is because a number of good Republican leaning seats in eastern Iowa only come up for election in presidential years. Five Democrat Senators currently occupy seats in districts that have a Republican registered voter advantage. A sixth Democrat represents a district that has just a 166 registered voter advantage for Democrats. Only one of these senators, Jeff Danielson, voted for the gas tax increase.

The Senate Republicans who voted in favor of the gas tax increase, which include Minority Leader Bill Dix, actually helped Gronstal and the Democrats protect their majority. Last I looked, the Democrats were in charge of the Senate. If they wanted to vote to increase the gas tax, the Republicans in the chamber should have made them do it, much like Democrats in the Iowa House forced Paulsen to pass the gas tax increase out of committee last week.

Tuesday had to be like Christmas for Gronstal.

Potential 2018 Democrat Gubernatorial Candidates

We are a long ways out from the next gubernatorial campaign, but when I see Democrats like Senators Chaz Allen and Liz Mathis voting against a gas tax increase, I can’t help but think they could be positioning themselves to run against a Republican who backed the tax increase.

AGC-Road Builders

Think about it, in the next five years alone, Iowa will be spending an additional billion dollars on roads and bridges. It’s a good time to be in the construction business.

Iowa Farm Bureau

The farm bureau has plenty of clout in Iowa politics, and raising the gas tax has been a priority of their’s for a long time. Their support provided political cover for the rural Republican lawmakers that were instrumental in passing the bill.

Rep. Josh Byrnes

Regardless of whether or not you agree with Byrnes’ position on raising the gas tax, he’s been the champion of the issue for years and passed legislation that has been a priority for some since 2006. While legislative leaders like Gronstal, Paulsen, and Branstad played games to hide their support of the measure, Byrnes was loud and proud of it. He is one of the few elected leaders who actually showed any sort of leadership in all of this.

The Losers

Senator Bill Dix

Eleven Senate Republicans voted against the gas tax increase on Tuesday. Four of the 11 are not up for re-election in 2016, while the other six are. The six others who voted no on the gas tax increase all come from heavily Republican districts.

Three first term Republicans, Senators Mark Segebart, Mike Breitback, and Dan Zumback each voted for the tax increase. The districts they represent have a Republican voter registration advantage, but the areas that they represent have caused problems for Republicans in the past. This vote, combined with a presidential election year, could put them at risk, especially if Republicans back home are the least bit upset with them.

When you are the MINORITY leader in the Iowa Senate, you really only have one job – winning the majority. Dix and Senate Republicans needed to force Senate Democrats to pass the tax increase. Instead, so many Republicans voted in favor of it, it allowed Democrats in Republican leaning districts the ability to vote no.

For years now Republicans have proven to be their own worst enemies when it comes to the Iowa Senate. They’ve been just two seats short of a majority now for four years. They needed to force someone like Brase, Mathis, Schoenjahn, Sodders, or Wilhelm to vote for a tax increase. Instead, Republicans let their Democrat counterparts off the hook.

Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds

Many Republicans believe that Reynolds is being groomed to run for Governor in 2018, and while that makes all the sense in the world, one also must realize that she will be forced to carry all of Branstad’s baggage, which will now include a huge tax increase. This is a major issue for Reynolds in a primary, but it could also be an issue in the general election since I think it’s likely that the Democrats will nominate someone who didn’t vote for the gas tax increase.

Iowa Conservatives

Conservatives failed to unify and articulate a real alternative to the gas tax increase. Despite being a campaign issue in 2010, it wasn’t much of an issue in the 2012 and the 2014 campaigns. Senator Joni Ernst supported and voted for a gas tax increase in the past, but voters didn’t care when it came to the U.S. Senate primary. The same was true in the Third District Congressional race, where Bob Cramer, a bridge builder, was a favorite among some social conservatives. David Young even expressed support of a federal gas tax increase in the general election, yet nobody really cared.

The point is that, to defeat a tax increase like this, you need a number of things to happen, but mainly you need a constant and vocal opposition. We never had that. It’s not good enough to just get up and say there is waste. The opposition needed to provide proof. The opposition needed to be creative and passionate. In the end, they were neither.

Conservatives needed to define the debate. For example, they could have called it a billion dollar tax increase. Instead they said it was a 45 percent tax increase. Let me just say, a BILLION scares me much more than 45 percent does.

Iowans for Tax Relief

ITR used to illicit fear in the hearts of Republican legislators, but now it seems they barely have a presence in Republican politics. Remember the outrage when Democrats threatened to remove federal deductibility in 2009 and 2010? Thousands of people descended up the state capitol. It was crazy. People were passionate. None of that existed for the gas tax debate because Republicans are basically in charge, and because ITR is a shadow of its former self.

Americans for Prosperity

I remember reading a Washington Post article last fall about the AFP operation in Iowa. It talked about how the group was plowing millions of dollars into states like Iowa for the 2014 election. The quote that really got my attention was the following from Mark Lucas, a former Iowa Republican Party State Central Committee member who has gone from running the Iowa operation to overseeing an entire region for AFP.

“All we’re going to do is get bigger,” said Mark Lucas, an AFP regional director who oversees operations in Iowa and 10 other states. “After 2014, we’re not shutting down our offices. You’re going to see all these guys pack up the day after the election, but we’re going to stay open.”

Sounds great right? Well, AFP kept sending press releases and was opposed to the gas tax increase, but where was the grassroots effort, where were the ads urging people to call their legislators, where was their army of activists making it tough for the pro-gas taxers at their local legislative forums?  AFP fought more aggressively in the 2013 Coralville City Council races than a 45 percent increase in the state’s gas tax.

I Guess Iowa Matters – The Weekly Round Up

Beginning this Saturday, an impressive list of high-profile Republicans will be making their way through Iowa.  Between Bruce Rastetter’s annual Summer Party, the beginning of the Iowa State Fair, and The FAMiLY Leader’s Leadership Summit over __ GOP heavyweights will be in the state.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson are all scheduled to attend Rastetter’s annual event, which begins with a fundraiser for Joni Ernst, the Republican looking to join the most exclusive club in the world.  When you include Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, it means four of the 100 U.S. Senators will be in rural Iowa on Saturday night.

A few days later, another U.S. Senator will make his way to Iowa for a multiple day trip across the state.  Kentucky Senator Rand Paul will be in Iowa from August 4^th through 6^th.  Paul will headline fundraisers for Congressman Steve King and 2^nd District Congressional candidate Dr. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.  Paul will also visit a number of Republican Victory offices across the state and make some additional appearances as well.  Paul looks like a 2016 presidential candidate, but for the life of me, I don’t understand why he didn’t plan to be in Iowa on the 7^th for the beginning of the Iowa State Fair, an iconic stop for national politicians.

On Saturday, five potential presidential candidates will travel to Ames, which includes a return trip from Texas Senator Ted Cruz.  Joining Cruz at the FAMiLY Leader’s Leadership Summit is 2008-caucus winner Mike Huckabee, 2012 caucus winner Rick Santorum, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, and Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Oh and while South Carolina Senator Tim Scott isn’t running for President, he’s scheduled to attend as well.

So if you’re counting at home, that means five U.S. senators, two current governors, one former senator, and one former governor, will travel to Iowa for political functions next week.  Amazing.

Props to Paul and Perry

A slew of high profile Republicans will be in Iowa next week, but two of them deserve credit for coming in and doing things to help our candidates win this November.  As mentioned above, Rand Paul is headlining handful of fundraising events for Republican candidates and organizations.  Texas Governor Rick Perry is also lending a helping hand.

Perry will be in Iowa from August 9^th through 12^th.  In addition to attending the FAMiLY Leader’s Leadership Summit, Perry will headline a number of fundraisers for Republican legislative candidates.  Perry will attend fundraisers for Brian Schmidt, Mike Moore, and Crystal Bruntz, all of whom are running for the Iowa Senate this year.  Perry will also attend fundraising events for Miller-Meeks, Polk County GOP, Story County GOP, and the Pottawattamie GOP.  Perry will also visit the Iowa State Fair.

I really like what Perry is doing, not only is it impactful for the candidates he is helping to raise money for, it’s a relationship building process for him should he decided to run for president in 2016.

Lt. Governor Reynolds Should Want to Debate Vernon

I don’t understand why the Branstad campaign is refusing to let Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds debate State Senator Jack Hatch’s running mate, Monica Vernon.  Look, I understand that there is never a lot of interest in watching gubernatorial debates let alone Lt. Governor debates in a general election, but there are some of us who would find them interesting.

Lt. Governor Reynolds plays a large role in the Branstad administration.  She attends all the meeting, press conferences, and heads the Governor’s STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) initiative.  Reynolds is no stranger to state and local politics, and with her being viewed by many as Branstad’s heir apparent, she should actually want to be in the spotlight.

One would think that an in-the-know Lt. Governor would be the favorite in a debate against a city counsel member.  If Reynolds is serious about wanting to be governor someday, there is no better opportunity to sharpen her debate skills and get over any jitters she may have on the debate stage than participating in a debate against someone who you have a double-digit lead over in the polls.

Reynolds is a rising star among Republicans.  Earlier this week she was selected to be the chair-elect of the National Lieutenant Governor’s Association.  There is no reason for her not to debate if you ask me.

That’s all folks!

Needless to say, next week is going to be a busy one.  Get out and enjoy all the activities.

Branstad Campaign Launches Three New TV Ads

(URBANDALE, Iowa) – The Branstad-Reynolds campaign today released three new ads for the general election campaign.

“Iowans know that because of the Branstad-Reynolds administration, Iowa is working again,” said Branstad-Reynolds campaign manager Jake Ketzner. “These ads show from the personal perspective how Iowans have been impacted by the good policies on jobs, education, the economy and tax reform from the past three and a half years, and why they believe Gov. Branstad and Lt Gov. Reynolds need to continue to build Iowa’s future.”

Is Joni Ernst the Proven Conservative Her TV Ads Make Her Out to Be?

Is it possible to be the anti-establishment candidate in a Republican primary for the U.S. Senate and be the choice of the Republican establishment in your state at the same time? By definition, this would seem impossible. Yet, State Senator Joni Ernst has managed to be the establishment backed, anti-establishment candidate in Iowa’s Republican U.S. Senate primary.

Iowa’s Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds was an early endorser of Ernst’s campaign, and Governor Terry Branstad has reportedly been helpful behind the scenes, especially in the fundraising department. Ernst has also been backed by national Republican establishment figures like Mitt Romney, Sen. John McCain, and Sen. Marco Rubio.

On the other hand, the Senate Conservatives Fund, a group known for going against the establishment grain, has backed Ernst. The Senate Majority Fund is backing a primary challenger to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Other groups like She PAC and the Susan B. Anthony list are also backing Ernst, as is former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Ernst gained statewide notoriety and national attention in recent weeks when her campaign produced two unusual television commercials. The first ad, which went viral because it focused on the castration of pigs, was discussed everywhere from local coffee shops around Iowa to the Tonight Show stage in New York City. The Ernst campaign put little money behind the ad, but it got plenty of earned media attention.

The campaign’s second ad, entitled “shot,” features a leather-clad Ernst on her Harley-Davidson motorcycle heading to an indoor gun range. The ad features Ernst shooting her Smith & Wesson 9mm handgun into the camera, with the announcer saying that she will, “unload” on Obamacare.

Ernst’s catchy TV spots make it clear as to who her targeted audience is: Tea Party conservatives, Second Amendment activists, and conservative primary voters. In other words, not the establishment types who are consulting and supporting her campaign for the U.S. Senate. Her ads also provide a clue as to how her campaign thinks she’s going to win the June 3rd primary and hopefully surpass the 35 percent threshold to avoid the nomination being determined at the Republican state convention.

With the Republican primary on June 3rd less than a month away, the Republican U.S. Senate primary has become more spirited, especially between the to perceived frontrunners – Ernst, and businessman Mark Jacobs. Ernst has repeatedly jabbed Jacobs for the past couple months, even creating an anti-Jacobs website, but Jacobs has just now acknowledged her attacks and is countering with his own website focusing on Ernst voting record in the Iowa Senate.

While the conventional wisdom is that Jacobs and Ernst are in a tight primary battle, the decision by the Ernst campaign to produce two television ads that seem targeted directly at the Tea Party indicates that what she is really looking to do is peel off support from Sam Clovis, the most conservative candidate in the race, and former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, who also has some appeal with conservative voters. Both Clovis and Whitaker have failed to marshal the type of money it takes to advertise in a statewide primary. Thus, Ernst is wisely positioning herself as the conservative alternative to Jacobs.

Ernst is able to appeal to conservative voters that may currently prefer Clovis or Whitaker because she is largely unknown and undefined. The Republican primary is just 27 days away, and Ernst’s record, which includes votes in favor of higher taxes, remains unknown to most voters. That seems hard to imagine in a Republican primary for an open U.S. Senate seat, but Ernst has been allowed to fly under the radar because she, Clovis and Whitaker have all focused their criticism on Jacobs. They have painted Jacobs as some sort of rich, out-of-state, liberal boogieman, but Ernst’s record in the Iowa Senate raises plenty of questions when examined.

Ernst’s record includes a vote in favor of raising the gas tax by 10 cents and a vote in favor of taxing goods purchased on the internet. Those votes seem out of step with the priorities of a conservative group like the Senate Conservatives Fund, yet they and other conservative groups are standing behind the only candidate in the race with an actual record of raising taxes. One would also think that her refusal to support a federal marriage amendment, a position which she stated in a debate in Cedar Rapids on Saturday, would also make social conservatives question her conservative bonafides.

Ironically, it’s been the Iowa Democratic Party, not her Republican primary opponents or the state’s well-known social conservative kingmakers, who have raised questions about Ernst’s record. Earlier this week, the Iowa Democratic Party thanked Ernst for voting “to make sure Obamacare worked in Iowa.”

The Iowa Democrats were referencing Ernst’s vote on Senate File 395. The bill made a number of changes to Iowa code that were required by the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. Ernst voted in favor of the bill even though it conflicts with the image she is selling voters on in her latest television ad that states that she plans to “unload” on Obamacare when she gets to Washington. If Ernst didn’t unload on Obamacare when she had the opportunity to do so as a state senator, how can we trust that she will do it as our United States Senator?

The Ernst campaign has claimed that the wide array of Republicans that are backing her candidacy is an indication that she has become the consensus candidate in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. That may very well be the case, but it could also be because her Republican opponents have failed to make her explain the record she has established in the Iowa Senate since first being elected in 2011.

If a candidate like Sam Clovis or Matt Whitaker is to have any chance at winning the Republican primary next month, he must find a way to consolidate the conservative vote behind his candidacy. Their decision to needle Jacobs, who by most accounts isn’t even courting staunch conservatives in the primary, has been a huge miscalculation. Jacobs seems like an easy target to campaign against, but it’s Ernst who they must compete with to get conservative voters.

While nobody likes negative campaigning, it is important for Republicans to thoroughly vet their candidates in contested primaries. As we saw in the 2010 Republican congressional primary in the 3rd District, Democrats love nothing more than the opportunity to demoralize Republican voters about their nominee as soon as the primary campaign is over. Only one candidate – Jacobs – seems to have been vetted in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, while Ernst and the others have not had their past and record scrutinized.

Frankly, I don’t know what Clovis, Jacobs, and Whitaker are waiting for. If they think that some outside group is going to air Ernst’s dirty laundry for them, they are fooling themselves. In forum after forum, Ernst’s opponents have had the opportunity to bring up her support of gas tax, yet they all seem scared to pull the trigger. With one month left to go in the campaign, it’s time for one of Ernst’s opponents to make her defend her record.

If Ernst’s opponents fail to draw a distinction between themselves and her, it will not matter that Ernst’s record doesn’t match the rhetoric and packaging of her TV ads. Ignoring Ernst’s record has already helped her become the anti-establishment, establishment candidate. If someone really wants to challenge her for the Republican nomination, they better engage Ernst, and quickly. Otherwise, it seems likely that she will be the Republican nominee in June.

Ethanol Has Lost Its Luster With Some Republican U.S. Senate Candidates – The Weekly Round Up

Name one federal candidate from Iowa who has successfully run for office and who has also opposed the ethanol industry?

Name a current or former Iowa governor that has either been hostile to the ethanol industry or uninterested in its success?

That’s right, Iowa has never elected a U.S. Senator, Congressman, or Governor who opposes the ethanol industry. What’s surprising is that only two of the Republican candidates running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Iowa, Sam Clovis and Mark Jacobs, participated in an Iowa Renewable Fuels Association candidates’ forum on Thursday afternoon in Cherokee.  Three Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate, Joni Ernst, Matt Whitaker, and David Young all declined the opportunity to participate in the forum.

Both Clovis and Jacobs backed the Renewable Fuels Standard that the EPA wants to eliminate.   Clovis admitted that his position on the issue has evolved as he’s studied the issue.  Jacobs has backed maintaining the Renewable Fuels Standard as it an important catalyst to the Iowa economy and because it helps guarantee that consumers have a choice at the pump.

While Ernst and Whitaker didn’t attend the event, they were recently asked about the Renewable Fuels Standard at a recent forum.  Both indicated that they don’t support the initiative.  The Iowa Democratic Party has already attacked them for their position.

Ernst: “We Want People To Choose The Products That Work For Them And Not Have them Mandated By The United States Government.” During a December 2013 Republican candidate forum, candidate Joni Ernst said: “There’s a number of things, a number of industries, out there that we need to look at, but I agree that it does have to be free market driven. I think that that is very important also, and we will get to that point someday and I’m certain of it. We want people to choose products that work for them and not have them mandated by the United States government, and we are well on our way.” [Republican Jewish Coalition Forum, 12/16/13]

Whitaker: Renewable Fuel Standard Is About The Government “Picking Winners And Losers.” During a December 2013 Republican candidate forum, candidate Matt Whitaker said: “The EPA, in and of itself, is a horrible organization. They are anti-farmer, they are anti-innovation, and they are causing a consolidation in industry, whether it’s farming or whether it’s other things. That right now in America one of the ways you compete in private industry is to have a really good compliance department. That isn’t what America is about, whether you can follow the EPA’s rules better than the competition; it is about an entrepreneurial idea that goes to market and she makes profit because she has a great idea, and that’s what we need to encourage. And until we get to that, sort of all these discussions about mandates, and subsidies, and picking winners and losers, then the federal government is just going to encourage the folks at the EPA to pass more regulations, that across the federal government, a new regulation every two and a half days.” [Republican Jewish Coalition Forum, 12/16/13]

What both candidates seem to miss is that the Renewable Fuels Standard is important to the Iowa economy.  When the latest Renewable Fuel Standard was signed into law in 2005, the price of corn was $1.95 a bushel.  Corn prices rose steadily in the years that followed, going from $3.09 in 2006 to $6.94 in 2012.  The price of corn dropped to $4.85 per bushel in 2013.   Those high corn prices are good for the Iowa economy.  Iowa was able to weather the recent economic downturn in large part due to a robust ag economy.

When the price of corn is high farmers don’t need farm subsidies from the federal government corn production.  That could change if the Renewable Fuels Standard goes away and lower demand and high yield cause the price of corn to plummet.  Once farmers lose profitability they will once again get a subsidy from the federal government.

When Iowa farmers are profitable, they buy new equipment, pickup trucks, and build new buildings which is all good for the local economy.  High corn prices have also caused the price of farm ground to skyrocket.  Today, the price of farmland is at an all-time high to an average cost of $8,716 per acre.  If the price of corn would plummets, the price of farm ground will soon follow.

As was explained at yesterday’s forum, the elimination of the Renewable Fuels Standard would actually be a mandate that only petroleum products would be available to consumers.  So while candidates like Ernst and Whitaker claim that the standard lets the government pick winners and losers, having no standard at all means that our government is once again giving preferential treatment to the oil industry.

It seems odd that a Republican candidate would shy away from the ethanol industry while trying to win the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate.  In recent weeks both Governor Branstad and Congressman Steve King have been very vocal in pushing back against the EPA’s plan to scrap the Renewable Fuels Standard.  That’s a centrist Republican in Branstad and perhaps one of the most conservative members of Congress in King.  Yet, Ernst and Whitaker have chosen to distance themselves from the issue.

Both of those campaigns may want to look at Brad Zaun’s failed 2010 congressional campaign to see if this is a strategy they want to follow.  We all know that Congressman Boswell ran a particularly negative campaign against Zaun that year, but Boswell’s first attack on Zaun was the ethanol issue.  Thus is should come as no surprise that Iowa Democrats are already attacking Ernst and Whitaker on the issue.

Like the rest of the Iowa delegation, Congressman Bruce Braley supports the continuation of the Renewable Fuels Standard.  Republicans historically enjoy a rural advantage over their Democrat opponents, but this is an issue that could nullify that advantage should Republicans nominate a candidate that is in opposition to the ethanol industries agenda.

Ernst’s opposition to the Renewable Fuels Standard is somewhat surprising considering that she represents a huge rural southwest Iowa district in the State Senate.  Ernst is also publically backed by the Lt. Governor and privately backed by Governor Branstad.  It seems strange that she would be at odds with him on such an important issue in Iowa.

I don’t understand the political calculation that each of these campaigns has made.  I know that presidential candidates were able to come into Iowa in 2012 and not publicly embrace the ethanol industry, but they don’t live here.  Further more, the number of people who caucus for Republicans is about half the size of the number of people who will participate in the Republican primary next June.

I think some of these candidates are getting bad advice, and some of them have supporters who know the ethanol industry extremely well.

Quick Hits:

Jerry Crawford Knows Women:  On last week’s installment of the “Insiders” on WHO-TV, Democrat powerbroker Jerry Crawford castigated Republican U.S. Senate Candidate Mark Jacobs for saying a week earlier that you have to talk to women on a “emotional level.”

I could go on and on about this topic, but I find Crawford’s outrage about Jacobs’ statement about women to be a little ironic considering that Crawford parades scantily clad women on to the basketball court of his Iowa Energy basketball games for the crowd’s amusement.  If objectifying women’s bodies isn’t disrespectful to women, I don’t know what is.

Tyler Olson Bows Out:  Tyler Olson said that he was going to dedicate the month of December to his family and then resume his campaign for governor.  He only needed a week to determine that he was toast.  It probably helped that a Des Moines Register poll showed Branstad with outstanding re-elect numbers.

Bob Krause – Democrat Frontrunner for Governor: I just had to laugh when the Des Moines Register Poll showed that wacko Bob Krause had better favorability numbers than Jack Hatch and Tyler Olson.  Krause has a higher favorability than Hatch, a considerably lower unfavorable number, and is better known to Iowans.  And Hatch thinks that no other Democrats will jump into the race.  LOL.

Talk about A Great Day, TIR’s Kevin Hall Destroyed Jeff Link on TV:  Jeff Link is perhaps the cream of the crop when it comes to Democrat political operatives in the state.  He was no match for TIR’s Kevin Hall when the two appeared on KCWI’s “Great Day” on Tuesday morning.

The conversation started out good for both, but when Hall linked Braley to President Obama’s “Lie of the Year,” that people could keep their current health insurance if they wanted, things got ugly for Link and Braley.  Link did his best to try and spin Braley’s record, but Hall destroyed him with just straight facts.  You know you won the argument when the guy you are arguing with changes the subject.

The interaction is a preview of what next fall’s campaign will hopefully be like.  There is no need for Republicans to try and get cute with Braley or attack him on every little thing he’s done.  The issue of Obamacare is deadly for him.  It’s probably why he can’t get near 50 percent in head-to-head polls with the unknown Republican field.  If a pollster were smart, he or she would test Braley against a generic Republican.  I bet he would be trailing.

The good stuff begins around the 6:30 mark!

Fundraising Totals Begin to Tell a Story – And It Isn’t Good

Candidates for the U.S. Senate have begun to disclose what they have raised for their campaigns in the financial quarter that ended on September 30^th at midnight.  It may be a while before the public will be able to scan the reports to see how and from whom they raised their funds, however the initial figures do give us some insight into  the health of their campaigns.

State Senator Joni Ernst – $252,000

Before announcing that her campaign had raised just over $250,000 in its initial fundraising period, Ernst released what could be the largest political endorsements of the Republican primary.  With U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, Governor Terry Branstad, and both Republican U.S. Congressmen unlikely to publically back a candidate for the U.S. Senate, Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds’ endorsement of Ernst is significant, especially considering that Ernst’s name I.D. across the state is probably not all that high.  Whether purposeful or not, the Reynolds endorsement gives Ernst’s candidacy a seal of approval from the Branstad administration.

With the endorsement of Reynolds also come expectations.  Ernst’s initial haul of $250,000 is far better than what Sam Clovis, Matt Whitaker, and David Young raised, but it does not put her in a league of her own like some have suggested.  Ernst’s fundraising haul still puts her behind David Young in terms of fundraising for the entire primary thus far. If the Ernst campaign wanted to set themselves apart from the competition, it need to surpass the $300,000 mark, and quite honestly approach the $500,000 mark.

Ernst’s initial fundraising haul gives her a passing grade, but there is a lot of room for improvement.

Sam Clovis Raises $75,000

Sam Clovis’ campaign raised significantly more money in the second reporting period than it did in its first fundraising quarter.  While the total the campaign raised is a still a measly $75,000, growth in the fundraising department is exactly what the campaign needed to show.  Some on this site have commented about Clovis’ “high burn rate,” meaning the amount he is spending is most of what he raised.  That is easy to understand when you realize that the campaign used direct mail solicitation for the bulk its fundraising activity.

The Clovis campaign also announced that Chuck Laudner has signed on to be its campaign manager.  Laudner is a perfect fit for Clovis.  Throughout his career in politics, Laudner and most of the campaigns he’s been associated have been able to do more with less.  In this case, the “less” means financial resources.  Laudner’s style of grassroots organizing is exactly the type of campaign that Clovis can afford and can be successful in implementing.

One word of caution for the Clovis campaign…  While Laudner has been credited for a lot of the success that Rick Santorum had in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, this is a primary, not a caucus.  Twice as many Republicans will likely participate in the 2014 U.S. Senate Primary as voted in the Iowa Caucuses.  That means a campaign will have to reach out to a wider swath of voters to be successful in the primary.

Besides continuing to show growth in the fundraising department, the Clovis campaign must also show that it is more than a regional campaign.  The campaign has released the names of hundreds of supporter and county leaders, the majority of whom have been from northwest Iowa.   Again, one can’t take away from the campaign’s early organizational accomplishments, but Clovis must show signs of support in other parts of the state if he wants to be viewed as a legitimate factor the race

David Young Raises $112,334

David Young turned a few heads when he out raised all of his Republican opponents in a condensed reporting period that ended in May.  In that period, Young raised over $155,000.  Over the next ninety days Young’s fundraising pace slowed, but he still managed to raise $112,334, which still puts him as the fundraising leader for the Republican primary.

Most of the money that Young was able to raise in his first quarter came from his D.C. connections.  It will be interesting to see if that trend holds true, or if Iowans are buying into his campaign.  Another thing to watch concerning Young is his cash on had.  Young hired a number of staffers and sent a large mailing at the opening of the fundraising quarter.  All of those things cost money.  Young’s fundraising seems to be all right, but his cash-on-hand number might give us a better idea of the health and viability of his campaign.

Waiting on Whitaker

Matt Whitaker has yet to disclose how much he raised in the second fundraising period.  His silence suggests that his numbers are not as good as his initial filings. Both Whitaker and Young hyped their initial numbers by say saying that they were able to raise the amount in a very condensed amount of time.  It’s problematic when you raise less over the span of 90 days than you raised in just 30 or 15 days.  Young has already confirmed that his fundraising pace has slowed.  Now we need to know if that also holds true with Whitaker.

The Second Reporting Period is Always the Hardest

Raising the necessary money to fund a legitimate U.S. Senate primary campaign is one of the must difficult tasks for a candidate.  Their initial report is typically full of donors who are eager to support the candidate – low hanging fruit so to speak.  Their second fundraising quarter is often more difficult.

Looking up at Bruce Braley

Braley’s attributes as a statewide candidate are poor, but his fundraising prowess is as good as it gets.  Braley hauled in $900,000 again for the quarter, marking the third straight quarter where he raised almost a million dollars.  To date, Braley has raised $3 million and has $2.3 million on hand. To put that in perspective, the Republican candidates have yet to even raise $1 million in aggregate.

Money isn’t everything in a race like this, but a highly contested Republican primary combined with Braley not having to deal with a primary puts Republicans at a distinct disadvantage in the general election if this trend continues.

Romney’s New Digs, Ann’s Caffeinated Burritos, and Ganske’s Message to Farmers Out in the Fields – The Weekly Roundup

Lt. Governor Endorses Joni Ernst – Yawn

Perhaps the worse kept secret in Iowa is that Governor Branstad and Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds are solidly behind Joni Ernst’s candidacy for the U.S. Senate.  Reynolds made it official this week when she publically announced her endorsement.  Branstad, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be headed for a public endorsement any time soon.

Reynolds’ endorsement will surely help Ernst, but it could also create some heartburn for the Branstad campaign. The chummy relationship between the Branstad campaign and the Ernst campaign has raised concerns in other U.S. Senate camps.  The fact that the Branstad campaign’s communications director, Jimmy Centers, was standing alongside of Reynolds at the Monday press conference only adds to those concerns.

It is also no secret that the Branstad campaign is organizing its supporters to be delegates at the county, district, and state conventions in an effort to elect new leadership at the Republican Party of Iowa.  If no candidate reaches the 35 percent threshold in the primary, state delegates will select the nominee, which could potentially give Ernst a big advantage.

Ganske Encourages Farmers to Get their Wives a Facelift or Boob job

I always find former Congressman Greg Ganske’s commercials for his plastic surgery practice to be one part creepy and another part funny.  Well, Dr. G didn’t let me down with his newest radio ad that is currently playing on WHO Radio.

The ad features a soft-spoken Ganske addressing farmers who are currently in the fields bringing in the harvest.  His pitch to the farmers is that while they are sitting there, they should think about doing something nice for their farm wives.  Maybe those wives were overly exposed to the sun while working on the farm and could use a facelift.  Or maybe time and gravity has taken its toll on their breasts.  If that’s the case, Ganske is more than willing to give them a lift.

I don’t know if the ads are brilliant or creepy, but I do always remember them.

Mormon Church OK’s Romney’s Caffeinated Burritos

Just when Republicans were about to forget the failure that was the Romney 2012 presidential campaign, the Romneys turn up in the news.  Look, Mitt and Ann Romney are nice enough people, but I don’t understand their continued quest for the spotlight.

The Romneys were recently on Rachel Ray’s daytime talk show promoting Ann Romney’s new cookbook, The Romney Family Table.  Mitt and Ann made their sweet Pork Burritos on the show, which includes two cans of diet Dr. Pepper.  Buzz Feed had a little fun with the use of a caffeinated beverage in the Romney recipe since it is believed that Mormons are not allowed to consume caffeinated drinks.

However, in 2012, the Mormon Church clarified its position stating, “Despite what was reported, the Church revelation spelling out health practices (Doctrine and Covenants 89) does not mention the use of caffeine. The Church’s health guidelines prohibits alcoholic drinks, smoking or chewing of tobacco, and ‘hot drinks’ — taught by Church leaders to refer specifically to tea and coffee.”

I guess the joke’s on Buzz Feed.

Or maybe not!  I highly recommend reading this news article about the topic from a Salt Lake City television station.  Look at these gems…

“In fact, I baptized a guy who worked for Coke and he was thinking, ‘I might have to get a different job!’ ” Rollins said.

“The folks who say, like I did, ‘I grew up not drinking caffeinated sodas, I was told by my parents it was bad and it was OK to judge people harshly who did.’

“At the LDS Church-owned Brigham Young University, caffeinated drinks are not sold. It is not because of a church or university edict, said spokeswoman Carri Jenkins, but customer demand.”

Maybe going on Rachel Ray and cooking with caffeine wasn’t a good idea after all.

Dexter’s Story

The University of Iowa’s Children’s Hospital has published an outstanding video that highlights the birth of a little boy named Dexter, who was born at 23 weeks and weighed just 506 grams – that’s just over one pound.  After a stay in the neonatal intensive care unit, Dexter went home with his parents.  Despite his early birth, he was perfectly normal when his parents took him home.

Isn’t odd that in one part of the University of Iowa Hospital, a 23-week-old fetus is able to live and develop into a normal baby boy, and in another part of the hospital, babies that age and older can be killed for just about any reason .

I guess it’s not odd.  It’s sad.

 

Why Romney Could Never Relate to Ordinary People

Looking back on his presidential campaign, I think Mitt Romney should have done more things like cooking caffeinated burritos on the Rachel Ray show. Sure Romney is quirky, but seeing him in that setting makes him seem far more likeable than most people perceived him to be.

During the campaign, I wrote that Romney had a difficult time relating to average Americans because they are really scared about what the future holds for them, and no matter how bad things get, it’s safe to say that Mitt Romney and his family are going to be just fine.

Case in point.

In 2009, Mitt Romney sold his 9,500-square-foot house at Deer Valley Resort in Utah for $5.25 million.  Just recently, Romney purchased a home that was listed for $8.9 million in the same resort.  Romney did downsize.  His new digs are only 8,730 square feet.  Good thing it’s only a vacation home.

I don’t have anything against Romney’s wealth, I just think it was the main contributor to his ability to relate to average Americans.

Jimmy Kimmel Mocks Braley’s Towel Complaints During Shutdown

Jeff Boeyink stepping down as Governor Branstad’s Chief of Staff

Boeyink says working for Terry Branstad:  “The honor of my life”

(DES MOINES) – Jeff Boeyink, Chief of Staff for Gov. Terry Branstad, today announced he is stepping down from his position. Boeyink, who served as the governor’s campaign manager in 2009/10, as co-chair of the transition team following the successful November 2010 election, and as Gov. Branstad’s chief of staff since the January 2011 inaugural, will leave the position on Friday, September 6.

“Working for Terry Branstad has been the honor of my life and the decision to leave this office is the most difficult I have ever made,” said Boeyink. “I am exceptionally proud of the team we have assembled to serve the governor and lt. governor and believe the unprecedented results we secured in the last three years, and in particular in the most recent legislative session, are a testament to our collective vision and hard work.”

“I am looking forward to taking my first vacation since 2008 before I begin a new career in the private sector,” Boeyink continued. “In addition, I will now have the opportunity to provide more time and effort in helping build the governor’s campaign effort as we look forward to a potential reelection run in 2014. My commitment to Governor Branstad and Lt. Governor Reynolds is as strong as ever and I want to help ensure they are leading our state for many years to come.”

“Jeff Boeyink has been a valued part of our team since joining me on the campaign in 2009 and his leadership in this office and the entire executive branch will be greatly missed,” said Branstad. “His ability to identify talent, and to train and mentor those with whom he works, has been instrumental in helping us achieve the biggest property tax cut in state history, landmark education reform, and a new modern outcomes-based health care system that will be a model for the nation.”

“Jeff was a strong and steady force who gave tireless energy to support the efforts of Governor Branstad and me as we work to make good on our goals to create jobs, increase family incomes, reduce the size and cost of government, and restore Iowa’s place as an educational leader,” said Reynolds. “He embedded those goals through every layer of the executive branch in his daily work and that commitment has made a difference.”

Display of Strength: Branstad Campaign Unveils 1,033 County Chairs

Governor Terry Branstad may be waiting for the calendar to turn to 2014 before he officially announces his re-election campaign, but his campaign is already in full swing.  The Branstad-Reynolds campaign will announce today that it has already surpassed 1,000 county chairs, a staggering display of campaign organization that is rarely seen in statewide contests in Iowa.

Branstad already enjoys two other major advantages over the two Democrats who hope to challenge him next fall.  The first is the universal name I.D. that comes with being the longest serving governor in the state’s history.  The second his is his robust fundraising ability.  When you add on top of that the Branstad campaign’s grassroots organization, the Democrats’ chances of defeating the five-term governor go from bad to worse.

To put the Branstad campaign’s organizational feat in to perspective, just consider that it took Congressman Bruce Braley twenty weeks to secure 130 county coordinators for his U.S. Senate campaign, and like Branstad, Braley doesn’t have a primary opponent.  Not only is Branstad’s grassroots organization nine-times larger than Braley’s, but it was also accomplished in a much shorter timeframe.

Phil Valenziano, the Branstad campaign’s political director, was hired in the beginning of May.  The campaign’s four field directors, Kaylee Carnahan, Jacob Johnson, Matt Leopold, and Nic Pottebaum, didn’t join the campaign until July 30th.  That means in less than three weeks time, the Branstad campaign has assembled an organization that will be difficult for who ever his Democrat opponent may be to match in the general election.

The Branstad campaign is also quick to note that they are only in the initial stages of organizing their grassroots efforts.  “This is just the beginning of our continual work to build the strongest grassroots organization Iowa Republicans have ever seen,” said campaign manager Jake Ketzner. “We find as we visit with Iowans they are proud to join Governor Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Reynolds’ team because of their tireless work bringing jobs to Iowa, growing our family incomes, providing a world-class education for our children and reining in frivolous government spending.”

Jon Laudner, an Iowa State University student, is Branstad’s Story County Co-Chair and a Floyd County native.  “As an Iowa State University student, I appreciate the governor and lieutenant governor’s work to provide the first tuition freeze at Regent universities in over thirty years,” Laudner stated.  “I also know Governor Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Reynolds are working diligently to bring even more good, high-paying jobs to Iowa to keep young people like myself in our state.”

Dr. Scott Ihrke, a small business owner and a Co-Chair in Plymouth County, appreciated the work the Branstad-Reynolds teams has done to improve the state’s business climate.  “Unlike businesspeople in other states, small business owners like myself have the fortune of having a governor and lieutenant governor who have restored predictability and stability in state budgeting. Governor Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Reynolds’ leadership has allowed my business the ability to grow without the fear of looming tax hikes and government red tape.”

A longtime GOP activist, Joni Scotter, is serving as one of the campaign’s Linn County Co-Chairs.  “Iowa was in serious trouble four years ago, but under Governor Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Reynolds’ leadership, Iowa’s unemployment has dropped significantly from 6.1 to 4.6 percent, our budget is balanced and transformational education reform has been passed. I’m on team Branstad-Reynolds because the governor and lieutenant governor are building Iowa for a prosperous future.”

While Republicans appear to be eager to help Branstad win a historic sixth term as Iowa’s governor, Branstad’s Democrat opponents are finding it difficult to take issue with his accomplishments over the past four years.  Last week, State Senator Jack Hatch spent $40,000 on a TV ad attacking Branstad over a speeding incident involving the Governor’s black SUV that was being driven by a State Trooper at the time.  Cedar Rapids State Representative Tyler Olson, on the other hand, spent the week trying to get Brandstad to call for Republican State Senator Kent Sorenson’s resignation over a pay-to-endorse scandal involving Sorenson and Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign.

While the 2014 general election is still a long ways away, the fact that Branstad’s opponents are trying to make political hay over controversies that don’t directly involve the governor himself is telling.  Hatch is also quick to criticize Branstad for not implementing various provisions of Obamacare, but that’s not necessarily an issue that’s going to help Hatch in the general election.

Even though Democrats believe that Branstad is vulnerable in 2014, it will be difficult for them to make the case to Iowans for why Branstad should not be re-elected to another term.  Four years ago, the budget was a mess, and state government stricken with scandals.  To Branstad’s credit, he not only quickly turned around Iowa’s finances, but he has also proven that, by putting qualified people in charge of state agencies, government run more efficiently.

Branstad’s display of organizational strength only confirms that Iowans are more than happy with Branstad’s leadership.  Below is a list of the 1,030 Iowans who have signed on to help the Branstad-Reynolds campaign win re-election in 2014.

Branstad, Reynolds announce 1,033 county chairs

Chairs secured in all 99 Iowa counties; Organization and county chairs continue to be recruited

(URBANDALE, Iowa) – Gov. Branstad and Lt. Gov. Reynolds’ campaign committee – the Governor Branstad Committee – today announced the initial organization of 1,033 county chairs across the state. The organization, which will continue to grow as the campaign works to fill every precinct, includes co-chairs in every county.

Click here to view the Branstad-Reynolds campaign’s list of county co-chairs.